At the start of July, the Red Sox were 11 games under .500, and rumors went wild about all the players they were going to need to sell at the deadline. Fast forward to today, and Boston pulled off the biggest deal of the deadline, going all-in on this season with Adley Rutschman.
Boston has been one of the hottest teams in baseball this last month, but it was still surprising to see them make a move like this. They could continue this hot streak and pull off a surprise run to win the division, but they will likely still finish behind the Rays and Yankees by the end of the season. The Red Sox wouldn’t be the first team to run through the playoffs from the wild card spot, but this play still feels awfully risky.
When you trade the number 2, 4, and 5 ranked prospects in your system, the front office is signaling that this is the year. I’m just not sure that Rutschman is the guy you should go all-in on, though.
Rutschman’s first two seasons in Baltimore put him on a Hall of Fame-level trajectory, but he has sort of plateaued and even fallen off since. Injuries have, of course, played a factor in it, but that shouldn’t be too surprising, seeing that he’s playing the most demanding position in the sport. I just don’t think the bat is worth the price tag Baltimore placed on him.
This season, Rutschman has a slash line of .251/.331/.433, good for an OPS+ of 115. There’s a ton of value in a bat that solid and a player who’s already put up 1.8 WAR this year, but I’m not sure he makes Boston much better. He will, of course, help an already solid Red Sox pitching staff with his elite framing abilities, but framing isn’t enough for 3 top-5 prospects in the sport.
Adley has always been a guy with lower bat speeds over the course of his career, and with three IL stints already on his profile this year, I don’t love how that pans out for him long term. There are very few catchers I’m willing to sink my farm system on, and in his age-28 season, I just don’t feel he’s one of them anymore.
As much as I don’t love this deal for Boston, Baltimore fans have to be sick. Rutschman was the guy who was supposed to turn everything around for this franchise, but they never won a single postseason game while he was on the roster. Not only that, but he will be playing baseball this October for one of your division rivals.
I love the long-term outlook this deal provides for Baltimore, but it’s an incredibly tough pill to swallow in the moment. These prospects need to work out, or they’ll have an awful time watching Rutschman this October.
