TODAY: The Reds “are now telling teams that…Greene is no longer available,” USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes. This may close the door on the possibility of Greene being moved at least by the deadline.
JULY 31: The Reds are drawing substantial interest in right-hander Hunter Greene, per reports from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com and Buster Olney of ESPN. That’s not surprising given the combination of their seller status, Greene’s dominant results when healthy, and the right-hander’s club friendly contract. Robust interest hardly means a trade will actually come together, but controllable starting pitching is typically the most in-demand commodity this time of year. It’s at least somewhat notable that Feinsand and Olney both suggest there’s an actual chance he’ll move; WEEI’s Rob Bradford reported this week that the Reds have effectively told teams who’ve inquired on shortstop Elly De La Cruz to not even waste their time trying. If nothing else, it seems there’s at least a softer stance on Greene.
Greene, 27 next week, was the No. 2 overall pick back in 2017. He debuted with a pair of solid enough seasons in 2022-23, showing big ability to miss bats but also major susceptibility to home runs (237 2/3 innings, 4.62 ERA, 30.7% strikeout rate, 9.3% walk rate, 1.63 HR/9). The Reds were encouraged enough by his blazing heater, power slider and bat-missing ability that they inked Greene to a six-year, $53MM extension early in the 2023 season. The results for the rest of the season weren’t great, but it proved to be well timed; Greene stepped to the front of the Cincinnati rotation in 2024 and looked every bit the part of a high-end starter.
In 2024, Greene broke out with 150 1/3 innings of 2.75 ERA ball. He fanned 27.7% of opponents against a 9.3% walk rate and saw his HR/9 mark plummet to 0.72. Greene had scrapped his original changeup for a new split change, but it was primarily improved results on that bread-and-butter fastball/slider combo that paved the road to his breakout. Greene’s 2025 ERA was a nearly identical 2.76 but came with better rate stats: 31.4% strikeout rate and 6.2% walk rate. His 15.4% swinging-strike rate in ’25 was fourth-highest among all pitchers who tossed at least 100 innings, trailing only Tarik Skubal, Dylan Cease and Logan Gilbert.
The major caveat with Greene is that he simply hasn’t been able to stay healthy at the rate the Reds (or another team) would prefer. He had Tommy John surgery as a prospect in 2019 and has missed time in the majors due to a shoulder strain, multiple groin strains and a hip issue. He reported to spring training seemingly healthy this year but quickly ran into elbow pain that eventually prompted surgery to remove loose bodies. He only returned to the Reds’ active roster for his season debut earlier this month.
It’s been a boom-or-bust return for Greene. He was rocked for eight runs in 3 1/3 innings in his first start back on July 4. The 6’5″, 240-pound righty bounced back with dominant results in his next two outings (13 innings, three runs, seven hits, one walk, 19 strikeouts) and was then knocked around for six runs over 5 1/3 innings against the Cardinals in his most recent start. Greene’s 7.06 ERA in four starts is an eyesore, but his 30.9% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate are excellent. He’s been dogged by a .345 average on balls in play and an almost impossibly low 44.4% strand rate. Both should regress substantially; metrics like SIERA (3.22) and FIP (3.20) are far more encouraging than his baseline earned run average.
Obviously, there are real workload concerns with Greene. He’s never topped 26 starts or 150 1/3 innings in a season. That said, the right-hander’s contract is affordable enough that he’s been a bargain in recent seasons even while shouldering limited workloads. Greene is making $8MM this season. There’s about $2.45MM of that sum yet to be paid out. His salary will jump to $15MM in 2027 and $16MM in 2028. The Reds hold a club option on him for the 2029 season that’s valued at $21MM and comes with a $2MM buyout.
In total, Greene is owed $35.45MM for the remainder of this season and two more guaranteed years after the fact. If that option is picked up, the sum would jump to $54.45MM for three-plus seasons. Given Greene’s per-inning results dating back to that 2024 breakout, that’s still a bargain rate. He’ll need to throw more innings to truly live up to the final few years of the deal, but arms of Greene’s raw talent don’t come around too often on the trade market — certainly not when they’re priced at this level and with this much remaining club control.
It stands to reason that just about any contender would have interest in Greene — as would any team that’s out of the running in 2026 but aiming to contend in 2027. Speculatively speaking, the Rays, Braves, White Sox, D-backs, Phillies, Rangers, Padres, Nationals, Orioles, Twins, Blue Jays, Giants, Royals, Mets and A’s are among the many, many teams that could try to entice the Reds. They won’t all show the same level of aggression, but Greene’s results (when healthy) would improve literally any rotation in the sport — and virtually any team in the game could afford his salary in subsequent seasons.
That’s also true of his incumbent team, however. The Reds have just a $128.64MM payroll this year, as seen in MLBTR’s newly rolled out Payroll Tracker. The luxury tax isn’t even on Cincinnati’s radar, and they only have $29.75MM in guaranteed contracts on next year’s books. A modest $2.5MM of that is allocated to Greene’s recently extended rotation-mate, Chase Burns, who signed a seven-year extension guaranteeing him $105MM earlier this month.
With Burns, Greene and the arb-eligible Andrew Abbott in place for up to three more seasons, the Reds have to feel good about the foundation of their rotation moving forward. Between De La Cruz and Sal Stewart, they have a pair of homegrown, middle-of-the-order bats around which to build the rotation. The supporting cast isn’t nearly as solid, however, and if the Reds feel they can get multiple MLB-ready bats in return for Greene, perhaps that’d be enough to push them to consider pulling the trigger on a difficult trade decision.
