Five states hold primaries Tuesday, with competitive House and Senate races that could ultimately decide control of Congress next year.
Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Virginia and Washington are all holding contests. A number of Democratic primaries are pitting congressional incumbents against progressive challengers.
Redistricting efforts will also influence the races. Missouri Republicans redrew their map to squeeze Democrats, while Virginia moved its primary from June to August for a Democratic redistricting push that courts ultimately threw out.
Democrats choose between moderates and progressives
In Michigan, retaining an open Senate seat is seen as a must-win for Democrats hoping to retake the chamber next year. But first, voters here will decide between two millennial Democrats vying to run against the likely nominee, former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers, this fall.
The Senate primary has become a test of how candidates farther left on the political spectrum will fare outside liberal cities where they have swept elections this fall.
The race has turned tense as multiple fights about the direction of the party collide, with Democrats sensing the tide turning after nearly two years out of power. Should Democrats go with tested centrist candidates with cross-aisle appeal? Or take a chance on insurgent campaigns with the potential to tap into the anger motivating many voters?
Rep. Haley Stevens flipped a suburban House seat in 2018 and served on the team President Obama tasked with rescuing the auto industry during the Great Recession. She has pledged to fight Trump and has focused on her support for Michigan manufacturing.
Jeff Kowalsky/AFP via Getty Images
Her opponent is epidemiologist Abdul El-Sayed, former health director for Detroit and later Wayne County. El-Sayed lost a primary for governor against Whitmer and hosted a public health podcast. His platform includes embracing Medicare for All and cutting the influence of corporate money in politics, constantly slamming the millions being spent against him by the pro-Israel lobbying group AIPAC.
Stevens has the money advantage and has outspent El-Sayed on the airwaves by at least eight times, according to AdImpact — including groups aligned with AIPAC.
El-Sayed is leading the polls for the primary contest. Yet Haley supporters argue that she has a better chance of winning in a purple state in November’s general election.
Michigan is a true swing state. Joe Biden won Michigan in 2020, and Donald Trump carried the state in 2016 and 2024, the latter election even as Democrat Elissa Slotkin narrowly won an open Senate seat that had been held by Democrats.
Tuesday’s contests will decide several competitive U.S. House primaries
Another test of the Democratic Party’s direction will be in Michigan’s 13th House District, which covers most of Detroit. Democratic Rep. Shri Thanedar, the multimillionaire businessman, is running against state Rep. Donavan McKinney, a progressive Detroit native. McKinney has the endorsement of Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Rashida Tlaib and has made Thanedar’s wealth and corporate ties the center of his more left-leaning campaign.
Republicans are fielding a handful of low-profile candidates, but according to Cook Political Report, whoever wins the Democratic primary is heavily favored in November.
In Washington’s conservative 4th Congressional District, rated as solidly Republican by Cook Political Report, the top three Republican candidates are representative of three different arms of the party.
Amanda McKinney, the Yakima County commissioner, has an endorsement from President Trump. Businessman and former candidate Jerrod Sessler has campaigned as the anti-establishment outsider. Republican state Sen. Matt Boehnke is more moderate.
Tuesday’s decision in the primary — where the top two candidates proceed regardless of party — will reflect the direction Republican voters have chosen for a rural, heavily Latino district that subsists on agriculture and energy production.
In Missouri, the solid blue 1st Congressional District that includes St. Louis is hosting another one of this cycle’s marquee Democratic primaries on Tuesday: between current Rep. Wesley Bell and former Rep. Cori Bush.
Bell defeated Bush two years ago, and now they are both back for a fiery rematch. Whoever wins this race — where apart from local issues, military aid to Israel has also been a big point of contention — will likely go on to serve in Congress.
While Bush has said she would vote to cut off military aid for Israel, Bell has voted against those moves. Bell is backed by Democrats like House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, while Bush is supported by the Democratic Socialists of America.
Seven other congressional districts in Missouri will hold primary races to pick candidates Aug. 4, under a new map the Republican-led Legislature passed that reshaped Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver’s Kansas City-area seat.
Primary wins that could shape November
Back in Michigan, a governor’s seat is in play because term-limited Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is leaving it open in a state President Trump carried in 2024.
Tuesday’s margins and turnout will offer the first signals about Democratic and Republican enthusiasm heading into November. The Democratic front-runner is Jocelyn Benson, Michigan’s secretary of state since 2019.
Benson’s priorities are the economy and the public education system, she told Michigan Public Radio, while her competitor, Chris Swanson, the current Genesee County sheriff, said he would focus on an audit of the state women’s prison, on curbing energy price hikes and on giving Epstein victims a voice.
In the Republican primary, Rep. John James, the 2018 and 2020 Senate nominee, has Trump’s endorsement, though Perry Johnson, a businessman and author, is proving to be tough competition. Johnson’s priorities include eliminating the state income tax, making property taxes less onerous and improving the quality of the state’s education programs, he told Michigan Public Radio.
The House majority is likely to come down to a handful of tossups, including Michigan’s 7th Congressional District, where three Democrats, including Will Lawrence, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, are running to take on first-term Republican Rep. Tom Barrett.
Other races to watch
Virginia’s Election Day was pushed from June to August this cycle after a congressional redistricting referendum and an effort to change the maps by the Democrats; the attempt was overturned by the Virginia Supreme Court on technical grounds, but the later date stayed in place.
Michelle Moffit, a director at Virginia Civic Engagement Table, a non-partisan, non-profit that works to protect voting rights, said she expects more participation from voters because of the Louisiana v. Callais decision and how it could have impacted Virginia.
“I think more people are aware of what’s at stake and how precious the right to vote is,” she said.
Voters will pick nominees for the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House on Tuesday, including in a few competitive swing districts in Virginia that could help decide control of the narrowly divided chamber in November.
A crowd of Democratic candidates are competing in a primary in Kansas on Tuesday for a Senate seat, according to Kansas Public Radio. The winner will challenge Republican incumbent Roger Marshall in November.
Kansas’ gubernatorial and House races also have contests between establishment candidates and outside challengers, to match the national trend, in both Republican and Democratic primaries.
